Why Alison Redford won the Alberta Provincial Election so convincingly, and why the media and the pollsters missed it

Why I think the conventional media and the pollsters bet on the wrong horse in this Alberta provincial election of April 23, 2013.Most were forecasting a majority Wild Rose government, the new Wild Rose party taking at least 44 of the 87 ridings up for grab.The actual results: Progressive Conservatives, 61; Wild Rose, 17; Liberals, 5; New Democrats 4.Do you remember when Premier Alison Redford won the Conservative Leadership race with an astounding come-from-beyond sprint, from 17% of the party vote to over 50% in the final ballot two weeks later?Do you remember how she won, by mobilizing medical and education professionals through unconventional means (i.e. the social media) that was most effective, but very difficult to quantify. Do you remember that nobody, but nobody, predicted she could possibly win?Let's go back to October of 2010, when now-Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi emerged out of a flock of mayoralty candidates to win when he wasn't even a front-runner. Let us remember Stephen Carter was Nenshi's cam ... Read the rest of entry »